The headlines and reports on the economy have had a very disheartening tone since mid summer. Minimal or zero job growth, worries about Europe has made investors and markets very nervous.
In September we shared a Blog post from Bill Conerly at Businomics that indicated he felt there was a good likelihood the recover would regain steam. This week we hear similar sentiments coming from other voices within our local forecasting and economic community. Chris Butler – Senior vice president of Riverview Asset Management shared his take on the economy at a recent East Vancouver Business Association event. While he has concerns, he doesn’t see us dipping into recession, and says there are some fundamentals that are downright strong.
Wednesday we were paid a visit by Doctor Arun Raha, the lead economist for Washington State, whose team is responsible to the Governor and Legislature to forecast revenues. Speaking at the new Vancouver Library Dr. Raha while not outright optimistic, says Washington is coping better than much of the rest of the nation. Some traditional economic engines such as Microsoft and Boeing are chugging along increasing hiring which will impact all of us, and we could expect to see an upturn as we get to mid 2012.
Keep this thought in mind. 2012 is an election year. Presidents usually use every tool in their toolbox to encourage growth during campaign years, and in 2012 you can look for spending on elections both locally and nationally to exceed anything we’ve seen in the past.
A theme we’ve emphasized before; the Fed has committed to another two years of low interest rates! If you want to borrow money to purchase a building for your company this is the window of opportunity. I receive emails from Bankers every day looking for companies they could lend to. All these factors lead me to believe it will be brighter than this past year.